In the news: Wake Forest faculty discusses H5N1 and ongoing research

Dr Brinkley Bellotti was recently intervented by the MIT Technology Review on the topic of H5N1 and its continued spread in dairy cows and poultry. Members of the section on infectious diseases are working on a number of projects to help understand the spread of H5N1 and its impact on animal and human health.

Research
Epidemiology
Software
Outbreaks
Forecasting
CMEED
Mathematical Modeling
Author
Affiliation
Published

December 10, 2024

Dr Brinkley Bellotti was recently interviewed by the MIT Technology Review on the topic of H5N1 and its continued spread in dairy cows and poultry. In her interview, Dr Bellotti mentions that unmitigated spread of H5N1 in animals could lead to recombination events of the influenza virus which could allow for strains that could more easily infect humans.

Members of the Section on Infectious Diseases including the Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Applied Statistics Group (IDEAS) and their collaborators are working on a number of projects to help understand the spread of H5N1 and its impact on animal and human health and have published several preprints on the topic.

In the first preprint, they provide the first estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) and other epidemiologic parameters for H5N1 in dairy cows and show that the virus can spread rapidly within herds1. As part of this work, they developed a web application that allows users to simulate the spread of H5N1 in dairy herd.

Example of the H5N1 web application outputs allowing simulation of the spread of H5N1 in a dairy herd

In the second preprint, IDEAS members Michael DeWitt and Brinkley Bellotti along with Wake Forest University Biology Professor Nicholas Kortessis show that the time farms have to mobilize interventions is extremely limited, with outbreaks often being essential over by the time of detection2. These findings have important implications for the design of effective surveillance and intervention strategies to control the spread of H5N1, suggesting that sensitive and frequent testing is likely needed to stop on-farm outbreaks and institute effective control measures to prevent farm to farm spread.

Figure 2 from DeWitt et al. (2024) showing the estimates values of the basic reproduction number (R0) and epidemic speed for H5N1 in dairy cows compared to other pathogens. Panel B shows the different surveillance strategies for detecting an ongoing outbreak within a farm.

Figure 3 from DeWitt et al. (2024) showing the results from the modeling study showing the time to detection of an outbreak and the time to control an outbreak for different surveillance strategies.

link photo credit: Cynthia Goldsmith/ Jackie Katz

References

1.
Bellotti, B. R., DeWitt, M. E., Wenner, J. J., Lombard, J. E., McCluskey, B. J. & Kortessis, N. Challenges and lessons learned from preliminary modeling of with-in herd transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in dairy cattle. 2024.08.06.606397 (2024). doi:10.1101/2024.08.06.606397
2.
DeWitt, M. E., Bellotti, B. R. & Kortessis, N. Time is of the essence: Effectiveness of dairy farm control of H5N1 is limited by fast spread. 2024.11.15.623774 (2024). doi:10.1101/2024.11.15.623774

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Citation

BibTeX citation:
@online{dewitt2024,
  author = {DeWitt, Michael},
  title = {In the News: {Wake} {Forest} Faculty Discusses {H5N1} and
    Ongoing Research},
  date = {2024-12-10},
  url = {https://wakeforestid.com/posts/2024-12-10-h5n1-updates/},
  langid = {en}
}
For attribution, please cite this work as:
DeWitt, M. In the news: Wake Forest faculty discusses H5N1 and ongoing research. (2024). at <https://wakeforestid.com/posts/2024-12-10-h5n1-updates/>

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