NC U‑SAFE
Data and decision support for North Carolina public health and community stakeholders on respiratory infectious disease risk and response.
Visit toolIDEAS: Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Applied Statistics
IDEAS designs actionable infectious disease analytics, public-facing tools, and open methods to support preparedness and response. Explore our research, products, people, and software.
Actionable modeling, decision analytics, and public‑facing tools for infectious disease preparedness and response.
Leader: Michael E. DeWitt
Core Members: Brinkley Bellotti, Jennifer Wenner,Tom Wierzba
Frequent Collaborators: Candice McNeil, Nick Kortessis, Caryn Morse, John Williamson, John Sanders, Aimee Wilkin, Katie Passaretti
What We Do
We design, evaluate, and deploy decision‑ready infectious disease analytics—ranging from real‑time situational awareness to risk communication tools and reproducible methods. Our work spans:
- Outbreak analytics & forecasting: Rapid assessment and short‑term projections to support public health decision‑making.
- Surveillance & risk tools: Public‑facing web applications that translate complex data into clear, actionable insights.
- Methods & software: Open‑source methods, reproducible modeling workflows, and practical tools for analysts and agencies.
- One Health & zoonoses: Tools and analyses at the human–animal–environment interface.
- Vaccine‑preventable diseases & AMR: Decision support for emerging and persistent threats.
Featured Products & Tools
NC SURRG/ CARGOS
North Carolina activities aligned with enhanced surveillance and response for drugs resistant gonorrhea and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs).
Visit toolSoutheast STD/HIV Dynamics
As part of the Southeast STD/HIV Prevention Training Center, we develop and deploy tools to support public health decision-making and surveillance for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the Southeast region of the United States.
Visit toolESBL Risk Calculator
A public‑facing risk communication tool related to extended‑spectrum β‑lactamase (ESBL) concerns.
Visit toolOh Cluck!
Pandemic influenza risk communication and One Health awareness presented through engaging, plain‑language visuals for undergraduates and graduate students based on H5N1 among poultry and domestic birds.
Visit toolMeasles Risk in North Carolina Elementary School
Scenario exploration and risk communication for vaccine‑preventable disease resurgence in a North Carolina elementary school for Measles given ongoing outbreaks in the United States.
Visit toolH5N1 Situational App
Zoonotic influenza situational awareness and exploration for H5N1 pandemic influenza among dairy cows (on-farm outbreak simulator).
Visit toolPeople
Leadership
Michael E. DeWitt
Role: Group Lead
Leads the activity of the group. Data science, infectious disease epidemiology and ecology.
Core Team
Brinkley Bellotti
Infectious disease epidemiologist and veterinarian with expertise in zoonoses.
Jennifer Wenner
Research data scientist with expansive experience in data visualization, machine learning, and electronic health record data extraction
How We Work
- Co‑production with practitioners: We build with and for decision‑makers, emphasizing usability, interpretability, and time‑to‑impact.
- Open methods: We prioritize transparent, reproducible analytics and share code where feasible.
- Iterative validation: Tools are iteratively tested for clarity, calibration, and operational fit.
- Responsible communication: We design plain‑language outputs, uncertainty displays, and clear limitations to support sound decisions.
Selected Software Contributions
- StanInside — Utilities to streamline integration of Bayesian modeling (Stan) in analysis workflows.
Code: https://medewitt.github.io/staninside/ - EpiNow2 — Real‑time estimation of effective reproduction numbers and nowcasting/forecasting (community project).
Project: https://epiforecasts.io/EpiNow2/ - CensoredDistributions.jl — Julia library for working with censored distributions (collaboration).
Code: https://github.com/EpiAware/CensoredDistributions.jl - ReparameterisedDistributions.jl — Julia library providing reparameterized distribution families for robust inference (collaboration).
Code: https://github.com/EpiAware/ReparameterisedDistributions.jl
Research Outputs
Selected Publications
Comparison of Minimum Inhibitory Concentration as Measured by Etests and Agar Dilution in Neisseria gonorrhoeae Isolates from North Carolina, 2018-2024.
Occurrence of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Rhipicephalus sanguineus Sensu Lato From Domestic Dogs in Kumasi, Ghana.
Knowledge, Attitude and Practices of Abattoir Workers in Kumasi Towards Ticks and Tick-Borne Pathogens.
Challenging a paradigm: Staggered versus single-pulse mass dog vaccination strategy for rabies elimination.
Retrospective cohort study of the microbiology and clinical outcomes of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) within a US academic health system.
Racial disparities in central line-associated bloodstream infections: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Lyme Disease Under-Ascertainment During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Retrospective Study.
Tropical Diseases in the United States: Beyond Poverty - Advancing an Ecological Framework in Tropical Medicine.
STI self-testing: ensuring representation and outreach to teens and adolescents in expanded approaches.
Association of social vulnerability index and masking adherence among children enrolled in COVID-19 community research partnership study.
Assessing Barriers to Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination in At-Risk Rural Communities of Western North Carolina, United States.
Quantifying individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility through household studies.
Characterisation of infection-induced SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence amongst children and adolescents in North Carolina.
Monkeypox testing delays: The need for drastic expansion of education and testing for monkeypox virus.
Venous or arterial thrombosis in COVID-19 cases in the North Carolina COVID-19 Community Research Partnership (NC-CCRP).
Analysis of infections among patients with historical culture positive for extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli or Klebsiella pneumoniae: Is ESBL-targeted therapy always needed?
COVID-19 Symptoms by Variant Period in the North Carolina COVID-19 Community Research Partnership, North Carolina, USA.
Evaluation of a health system's implementation of a monkeypox care model under the RE-AIM framework.
Could a Shigella vaccine impact long-term health outcomes?: Summary report of an expert meeting to inform a Shigella vaccine public health value proposition, March 24 and 29, 2021.
Vaccine-induced seroconversion in participants in the North Carolina COVID-19 community Research Partnership.
Evaluation of a simple, rapid and field-adapted diagnostic assay for enterotoxigenic E. coli and Shigella.
Survey of Adherence with COVID-19 Prevention Behaviors During the 2020 Thanksgiving and Winter Holidays Among Members of the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership.
Analysis of accumulated SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in North Carolina: The COVID-19 Community Research Partnership.
Functional Antibodies and Innate Immune Responses to WRSS1, a Live Oral Shigella sonnei Vaccine Candidate, in Bangladeshi Adults and Children.
Duration of SARS-CoV-2 sero-positivity in a large longitudinal sero-surveillance cohort: the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership.
Changing Attitudes toward the COVID-19 Vaccine among North Carolina Participants in the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership.
Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) vaccines: Priority activities to enable product development, licensure, and global access.
Pre-prints
- Bellotti BR, Wenner J, Toler C, Pabon V, DeWitt ME, McNeil CJ. Core group dynamics of gonorrhea infection in a North Carolina county from 2018 to 2023 2025:2025.04.14.25325476. doi:10.1101/2025.04.14.25325476.
- DeWitt ME, Bellotti BR, Kortessis N. Time is of the essence: effectiveness of dairy farm control of H5N1 is limited by fast spread. Published online November 15, 2024:2024.11.15.623774. doi:10.1101/2024.11.15.623774
- Bellotti BR, DeWitt ME, Wenner JJ, Lombard JE, McCluskey BJ, Kortessis N. Challenges and lessons learned from preliminary modeling of within-herd transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in dairy cattle. Published online August 8, 2024:2024.08.06.606397. doi:10.1101/2024.08.06.606397
- DeWitt ME, Sampson MM, Fairman RT, et al. Estimated Monkeypox Susceptible MSM Population in North Carolina. Published online July 21, 2022:2022.07.21.22277860. doi:10.1101/2022.07.21.22277860
- DeWitt ME, Kortessis N, Sanders JW, McNeil CJ. The Challenges of Surveying Heavy-tail Distributions for Use in Infectious Disease Dynamics. Published online July 6, 2023:2023.07.05.23292248. doi:10.1101/2023.07.05.23292248
- DeWitt ME. Rapid Impact Analysis of B 1.1.7 Variant on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in North Carolina. medRxiv. Published online February 9, 2021:2021.02.07.21251291. doi:10.1101/2021.02.07.21251291
Posters & Oral Presentations
- Balamayooran G, Gamble CS, Blevins M, DeWitt ME, Wenner JW, Daunais J, Petrovsky N, Mueller S, Ewing DF, Sanders JW, Sundaram AK. Poster presented at ASTMH Annual Meeting 2025 (Toronto, Canada); November 2025.
- DeWitt ME, Bellotti BR, et al. (Re)Shaping an Experiential Course in Tropical Medicine and Field Epidemiology for Undergraduates. Poster presented at ASTMH Annual Meeting 2025 (Toronto, Canada); November 2025.
- Seman JA¶, Norcross MJ¶, Bellotti BR, Wenner JJ, Sanders JW, DeWitt ME. The need for speed: characterizing the evolution in epidemic speed in Mpox and Marburg Virus Disease. Poster accepted at ASTMH Annual Meeting 2025 (Toronto, Canada); November 2025.
- Velez Toro J¶, DeWitt ME, Sanders JW. Comparison of Early Warning Signals: Characterizing Wastewater and Syndromic Surveillance using Serology for COVID-19 using the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership. Poster presented at WFUSOM Medical Student Research Day (Winston-Salem, NC); October 2025.
- Scozzari D, DeWitt ME, Buckley C, Jimison, Shukdinas A, Williamson JC. Evaluation of Risk Factors for Neurological Dysfunction in Hospitalized Patients Receiving Cefepime or Piperacillin/Tazobactam. Poster accepted at IDWeek2025 (Atlanta, Georgia); October 2025.
- Barroso L, DeWitt ME, Wenner JJ, Sanders JW, de Comarmond CA. Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic Clinical Curtailments on Urine Microbial Diversity. Poster accepted at IDWeek2025 (Atlanta, Georgia); October 2025.
- DeWitt ME, Kortessis N. The Role of Speed on Pathogen Controllability. Poster accepted at Emerging Infectious Disease Dynamics 2025 (Notre Dame); July 2025.
- McNeil CJ, DeWitt ME, Soge O, Geisler W, Jordan S, Pathela P, Reno H, Wendel K, Parker A, Leipertz G, Detman D, Golden M, Manhart L. BV or Not BV: The Association Between Mycoplasma Genitalium and Vaginitis and Other Female Genital Syndromes. Poster accepted a STI & HIV 2025 World Congress (Montreal, Canada); July 2025.
- Abbot R, DeWitt ME, Downward C, Rominger R, Saxena J, McNeil CJ. The Art of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Wellness: Assessing the Impact of Therapeutic Art on Self-Management in Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus. Poster accepted a STI & HIV 2025 World Congress (Montreal, Canada); July 2025.
- Bukhari A, Wenner J, Ahmed A, DeWitt ME. From Data to Decision: A Community-Engaged Respiratory Viral Surveillance and Forecasting Dashboard to Inform Public Health Measures. Oral presentation at SHEA Spring 2025 (Orlando, Florida); April 2025.
- Schaefer E, Lynch A, Baker A, Everhart A, Evan L, Carter C, Awedodu T, DeWitt ME. Impact of pharmacist management on glycemic control in patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes on insulin with personal continuous glucose monitors. Poster presented at AMCP 2025 (Houston, Texas); April 2025.
- Michael E. DeWitt, Brinkley Raynor Bellotti, Jennifer Wenner, Nicholas Kortessis. The relationship between epidemic speed, force of infection, and detection thresholds: Implications for highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1 spread among dairy cattle. Poster presented at: ASTMH 2024 (New Orleans); November 2024.
- Jeffrey Kilcup, Leigh Ann Sanders, Maria Blevins, Michael E. DeWitt, John Sanders III, Tom Wierzba, Kevin Porter. Comparing whole cell psoralen inactivated Shigella vaccine versus formalin inactivated Shigella vaccine in mice. Poster presented at: ASTMH 2024 (New Orleans); November 2024.
- Seth Offei Addo, Michael E. DeWitt, Ronald Essah Bentil, Christopher Nii Laryea Tawiah-Mensah, Jane Ansah-Owusu, Stacy Amoah, Richard Odoi-Teye Malm, John W. Sanders, Joseph W. Diclaro II, Samuel K. Dadzie. Ticks and tick-borne pathogens in Ghana: a significant risk of Zoonotic pathogen infections. Poster presented at: ASTMH 2024 (New Orleans); November 2024.
- Norcoss MJ¶, Seman JA¶, DeWitt ME, Sanders JW. Epidemic evolution: The changing epidemiological parameters of the highly virulent Marburg Virus. Presented at WFUSOM Medical Student Research Day (Winston-Salem, NC). November 2024.
- Seman JA¶, Norcoss MJ¶, DeWitt ME, Sanders JW. Apoxalypse: Evaluating the evolution and transmission dynamics of Mpox and its pandemic potential. Presented at WFUSOM Medical Student Research Day (Winston-Salem, NC). November 2024.
- Malik M¶, DeWitt ME, Wierzba TJ. Epidemiological Trends and Bio-Surveillance of Tularemia: A Systematic Review. Presented at WFUSOM Medical Student Research Day (Winston-Salem, NC). November 2024.
- Manual JA¶, Wenner JJ, Wierzba TF, Sanders JW, McNeil CJ, DeWitt ME. Patient Population-Specific Analysis of Neisseria gonorrhoeae Antibiotic Resistance Markers in Guilford County, North Carolina Using Whole Genome Sequencing. Presented at WFUSOM Medical Student Research Day (Winston-Salem, NC). November 2024.
- Nicole Slain, Olivia Randazza, Alexandria Taylor, John Williamson, Charles Hartis, Michael E. DeWitt, Elizabeth Palavecino, Christopher Ohl, Vera Luther, Ryan Maves, and Mary Banoub. Seven Days versus Longer Duration of Antibiotic Therapy for Gram-Negative Bacteremia (GNB) in Immunocompromised Patients. Poster presented at IDWeek 2024 (Los Angeles, California). October 2024.
- Shelby Brookshire, Mary Banoub, Olivia Randazza, Charles Hartis, James Beardsley, John Williamson, Seth Garner, Kristin A. Rebo, Elizabeth Palavecino, Vera Luther, Werner Bischoff, Preston R. Miller, Jason Hoth, Michael E DeWitt, Alex D. Taylor. Impact of Rapid Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Nasal Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) Screening on Duration of Vancomycin (Vanc) Therapy for Suspected Pneumonia (PNA) in Adult Patients (pts) Admitted to the Trauma Intensive Care Unit (TICU). Poster presented at IDWeek 2024 (Los Angeles, California). October 2024.
- Arefa Bacchus, Werner Bischoff, Mary Banoub, Olivia Randazza, Vera Luther, James Beardsley, John Williamson, Kristin Rebo, Seth Garner, Michael E. DeWitt, Alex D. Taylor. Impact of Universal Nasal Decolonization with an Alcohol-Based Nasal Antiseptic (ABNA) Versus Mupirocin on Infection Rates and Antimicrobial Utilization in Patients (Pts) Admitted to the Burn Service. Poster presented at IDWeek 2024 (Los Angeles, California). October 2024.
- Ryan McCormick, Michael E. DeWitt, Mary Banoub, Olivia Randazza, Alex D. Taylor, Vera Luther, Julia Cook, John Williamson. Real-World Efficacy of Fosfomycin for Treatment of Cystitis Caused by E. coli Versus Non-E. coli Bacteria With High Rates of FosA. Poster presented at IDWeek 2024 (Los Angeles, California). October 2024.
- Hanna Y. Akalu, Michael E. DeWitt, Amlak Bantikassegn, Justin Brooten, Ryan C. Maves. Palliative medicine consultation does not reduce antimicrobial use during end-of-life. Poster presented at IDWeek 2024 (Los Angeles, California). October 2024.
- Kaylie Goldner, Michael E. DeWitt, Ryan Maves. Monocyte Distribution Width (MDW) as a Biomarker to Distinguish Septic Shock with Bacteremia from Cardiogenic Shock. Poster presented at IDWeek 2024 (Los Angeles, California). October 2024.
- Joseph Creel, Adrianna Elashker; Michael DeWitt, James Beardsley, Christopher Ohl, Mary Banoub, Olivia Randazza, Alex D. Taylor, John Williamson, Charles Hartis, Ryan McCormick, Vera Luther. Antibiotic Inertia Occurs Frequently in Patients Admitted from the Emergency Department on Guideline Non-Concordant Therapy. Poster presented at IDWeek 2024 (Los Angeles, California). October 2024.
- DeWitt ME, Wenner JJ, Madola A, McNeil CJ. Attack of the Bots: When an STI Survey Goes Viral. Poster presented at: International Union Against Sexually Transmitted Infections (Australia); September 2024.
- Implementation and Real-World Experience of a Clinical Pharmacist-Driven Cabotegravir/Rilpivirine Clinic - Taylor, Alex D.; Markley Sydney E.; Beardsly James R; Williamson John C; Morse, Caryn G; DeWitt, Michael E; Wenner, Jennifer J; Wilkin, Aimee M. Presented at the Ryan White Conference. August 2024.
- DeWitt M, Reinke C, Inman M, Bischoff W, Kester S, Sampson M, Neelakanta A, Passaretti C. Exploring Socioeconomic Disparities in Surgical Site Infections. Oral presentation presented at the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology Spring Conference (Houston); April 2024. Top Oral Abstract
- Michael E. DeWitt, Leigh Ann Sanders, Appavu K. Sundaram, Maria Blevins, Kevin R. Porter, John W. Sanders. Characterization of Antigenic Sites of Neisseria Gonorrhoeae Using High-density Peptide Microarrays and Psoralen-inactivated, Whole-cell Vaccine in Mice. Poster presented at: ASTMH 2023 (Chicago); October 2023.
- Meddly L. Santolalla, Andres G. Lescano, John W. Sanders, Michael E. DeWitt. Use of Stochastic Branching Processes to Estimate the Emergence of Mpox in North Carolina. Poster presented at: ASTMH 2023 (Chicago); October 2023.
- Alexandra Cox, James Beardsley, John Williamson, Tyler Stone, Elizabeth L. Palavecino, Vera Luther, Michael DeWitt, Alex D. Taylor. Piperacillin/tazobactam versus meropenem for treatment of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing E. coli or K. pneumoniae bloodstream infections. Poster presented at: IDWeek2023 (Boston); October 2023.
- Olivia Randazza, Michael E. DeWitt, John Williamson. Effect of COVID-19 on Antibiotic Consumption: An Analysis of the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership. Poster presented at: IDWeek2023 (Boston); October 2023.
- William Webster, Elizabeth Palavecino, Michael E. DeWitt. Analysis of the Clinical Utility of the Filmarray Meningitis-Encephalitis Panel using a Threshold Cerebrospinal Fluid White Blood Cell Count of > 50. Poster presented at: IDWeek2023 (Boston); October 2023.
- Denmeade TA, Sanders LA, DeWitt M, Morse A, Sink S, Wescott M et al. Immunogenicity of Psoralen Inactivated Whole Cell Campylobacter Vaccine. Poster presented at: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene; November 2022.
- Williamson JC, Strylewicz GB, DeWitt ME, Uschner D, Soni A, Mongraw-Chaffin M, et al. COVID-19 Outcomes in the Immunocompromised Population of the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership. Oral presentation at: ID Week; October 2022.
- Ahmed A, DeWitt ME, Uschner D, Lagarde WH, Friedman-Klabanoff DJ, Santos RP, et al. Longitudinal Serological Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Children and Adolescents Using Serial At-Home Testing. Oral presentation at: ID Week; October 2022.
- DeWitt ME, Tjaden AH, Herrington D, Schieffelin J, Gibbs M, Weintraub W, et al. Characterization of COVID-19 Symptoms and Outcomes by Variant Period in the North Carolina COVID-19 Community Research Partnership (NC-CCRP). Poster presented at: ID Week; October 2022.
- DeWitt ME, Herrington D, Williamson JC, Seals A, Wierzba TF, Binek A, et al. Characterization of the Proteomic Changes via SARS-CoV-2 Infection or Vaccination in the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership (CCRP). Poster presented at: ID Week; October 2022.
- McNeil CJ, DeWitt ME, Palavecino E. Characterization of Routine Screening of Males and Females for Trichomonas vaginalis Infections. Poster presented at: STD Prevention Conference; September 2022.
Engage with IDEAS
For funders & partners: We co‑develop scoped pilots, public‑facing dashboards, and reproducible analytics designed for rapid adoption.
→ Contact: michael.dewitt@wfusm.eduFor researchers & students: We collaborate on methods, translation to practice, and training materials.
→ Get in touch: michael.dewitt@wfusm.eduFor public health practitioners: We can adapt our existing tools to local contexts and data.
→ Request a walkthrough: michael.dewitt@wfusm.edu
Acknowledgments
This work is made possible by collaboration across clinical, academic, and public health partners. We thank our colleagues and community stakeholders who co‑develop and refine these tools.